IB Predicted Grades: What Are They and Why Are They Important?

The International Baccalaureate qualification has the power to open doors to prestigious higher education institutions across the globe. However, you don’t need to wait until you’ve completed all your exams and received your diploma to start your university journey. In fact, most university applications begin months before your final IB assessment. But how can education institutions make admission decisions without knowing your final IB grades? The answer is that they rely on the IB predicted grades.

In this article, we explain their meaning, role in university application, and whether you can impact them.

What Are IB Predicted Grades?

When you’re pursuing an IB Diploma, your teachers will estimate how well they think you’ll perform in your final exams. These estimates are called predicted grades (or projected scores), and they are based primarily on your performance during the first year in the IBDP.

These predictions carry significant weight if you’re planning to attend a university. For instance, UK higher education institutions rely heavily on them when making admission decisions, as do many universities across Europe.

However, even if your target universities don’t require predicted scores, they may still serve you well as indicators of your academic standing. In other words, they can help you identify areas where you might need additional focus before your final exams.

How Predicted Grades Are Calculated

The process of determining preliminary grades varies from school to school. Typically, teachers evaluate your performance in all the IB subjects through multiple channels. They’ll consider your overall academic journey, including how well you did on regular class tests, mock exams, and assignments throughout the year.

Many schools give mock exams substantial weight when calculating predicted grades since they simulate the conditions and complexity of actual IB exams. Additionally, teachers evaluate your Internal Assessment drafts, as well as the progress with the Extended Essay and Theory of Knowledge as all these components contribute to your final IB score.

Your day-to-day engagement matters too. Active participation in class discussions and consistent academic effort can positively influence your predicted grades. That’s because they indicate your willingness to learn and achieve academic success.

Although not universally accepted, most schools use these formulas:

• your predicted grade for subjects in the groups 3-5= 80% assessments + 20% coursework;
• projected scores for the group 1 and 2 subjects: 50% assessments + 50% coursework.

You should also keep in mind that teachers may also have different approaches to grade projection. Some might take into account your recent performance, while others focus more on your consistent achievement throughout the first year in the Diploma Programme. Either way, their ultimate goal is to provide an accurate forecast of your potential performance in the final exams. Therefore, they consider both your current abilities and possible growth over the remaining time in the IBDP.

Differences Between Predicted and Final Grades

Both predicted and final grades are critical to indicate your achievements in the Diploma Programme. However, they serve different purposes and are calculated through distinct processes.

Your predicted grades are basically your teachers’ educated guesses on how well you are likely to perform in your final exams. Although they are based on such objective factors as the results of your assignments, mock exams, etc., they are subjective in their nature.

Final scores, on the other hand, are the actual grades you earn in your official IB examinations. Although your teachers are responsible for the Internal Assessment as part of the final exam, the External Assessment (which typically represents 70-80% of the grade) is evaluated by IB examiners outside of your school. These scores are the official culmination of your two-year journey through the IB programme.

You need to realise that there can sometimes be a gap between predicted and final grades. Even though teachers use their experience and your past performance to make accurate predictions, the difficulty of the IB assessment and exam stress can lead to discrepancies between your estimated and actual performance.

Why Are IB Predicted Grades Important?

As we have already mentioned, predicted grades are often a decisive factor in university admission. Along with this, they become an important diagnostic tool, which highlights the areas you may need to improve before your final assessment.

On the other hand, your preliminary grades are important for the IBO as well. It can request them from your school as part of the academic integrity promotion. If your predicted grades were around 3 in most subjects but you received the maximum in your final assessment, this may indicate cheating. In this case, your examination papers will be subject to close inspection.

University Applications

We have already emphasised that predicted grades carry a tremendous weight in university applications. Since students begin their university applications quite early in year two of the IBDP (i.e. before their final IB exams), these projections become indicators of academic potential.

Higher education institutions have their own distinct requirements for applicants. Naturally, your predicted scores must match or be higher than admission requirements. Only in this case, do you have a chance to receive an acceptance letter.

Still, keep in mind that they may withdraw or put a hold on their invitations if the final assessment results significantly differ from the predicted scores. But even then, not all is lost. You have an opportunity to retake your IB exams and prove your readiness for challenging university-level courses.

If your aim is admission to a US university, you should know that they treat predicted grades differently than their UK and European counterparts. Yes, they still keep them in focus but also consider SAT and ACT results, extracurricular activities, personal achievements, and other factors. As a result, you may secure your admission even if there was a drop between your predicted and actual scores.

Scholarship Opportunities

Predicted grades can also significantly impact your scholarship opportunities. Many financial aid programs use these forecasts as indicators of academic promise when allocating their resources. In particularly competitive situations, strong predicted scores may set you apart from other candidates and ensure valuable financial support for your university education.

Setting Academic Goals

Apart from their role in university admissions, predicted grades are indispensable for study and revision planning. They are able to provide a good idea of your current progress as well as identify areas that need additional attention before you head to your final exams.

Thanks to these estimations, you have a chance to effectively adjust your study strategies. For example, if your predicted grade in one subject is lower than others, you might want to make more room in your revision schedule to catch up. On the other hand, strong projections can boost your confidence and encourage you to keep up the good work until the end.

How to Make the Most of Your IB Predicted Grades

What if we tell you that you can not only take advantage of your performance forecast but also influence it? If you show your diligence in class, timely submit your assignments, and give a fair amount of time to studying all your subjects, you have a strong chance to receive good predictions.

Here is what else you can do to take matters into your own hands.

Focus on Improvement

If your predicted grades fall below your expectations, try to view this as an opportunity rather than a setback. Lower predictions can serve as a wake-up call and eventually give you motivation to work harder and prove your potential. In the end, it is final grades that really matter. If thanks to worse-than-desired predictions you got to obtain better-than-hoped-for grades, then they accomplished their mission.

Tailoring University Applications

Predicted grades will also come in handy to understand which universities you can apply to. For UK educational institutions, these scores form the basis of conditional offers. Most universities publish their entry requirements, which can help you narrow down your choices. While it’s fine to include some ambitious options, it makes sense to primarily focus on the universities where your predicted grades make you a competitive candidate.

The U.S. university application process takes a more holistic approach. Although projected scores still matter to them, they try to understand you as a complete individual. That’s why your extracurricular activities, leadership experiences, community service, personal interests, and future aspirations will play an important role in the admission decision.

If your predicted grades aren’t as high as you’d like, you can leverage other strengths in your applications. Strong essays, compelling extracurricular achievements, and demonstrated passion for the chosen field can help balance lower predicted grades.

Open Communication with Teachers

Your predicted grades come from your teachers. They try to be as professional and objective as possible. Still, they are people; therefore, their impressions of you as a student will naturally factor into their assessment. That’s why building a positive relationship with your teachers will go a long way. But it isn’t about trying to win favour. It is about demonstrating your genuine commitment to learning.

You can do so by actively engaging in and out of class. This means, among other things, participating in discussions, asking questions, timely submitting assignments, showing consistent interest in the subject matter, etc. Moreover, such an attitude towards learning will allow your teacher to get to know you better and more accurately evaluate your academic capabilities.

When you encounter difficulties with concepts, don’t hesitate to seek help. Reaching out to teachers can also demonstrate your willingness to improve. They can also take this into account when making their predictions.

In the same vein, studying with an IB Math tutor can have a positive effect on your preliminary assessment. TutorsPlus will gladly partner you with one of our amazing tutors. Thanks to their vast experience as IB teachers and examinators, they know how to help you succeed. So, if you wish to become a student whom your teachers predict a bright future, you can count on us!

Reach out to us at 022 731 8148 or to get a consultation or book one of our IB Maths tutors.

FAQs

When are the Projected Results Published?

Timing tends to vary between IB schools, but most students receive their predicted grades between the end of the first and the beginning of the second years in the IBDP. This timing isn’t random. It is specifically designed to align with university application deadlines, particularly for the UK and Canada where early applications are common.

Are the Predicted IB Scores Accurate?

Your teachers carefully consider your predicted grades. Still, they aren’t always precise indicators of your final results. Teachers draw upon their experience and professional judgment to make their estimations, but there are many factors that may influence their accuracy.

For instance, your actual performance on examination day might differ from what your teachers anticipated. Examination conditions, stress management, and your final preparation efforts are all factors contributing to your final results. Even the most diligent student might perform differently under the pressure of final examinations compared to their usual classroom performance.

Along with this, teacher prediction styles will vary. Some take a more conservative approach, preferring to under-predict rather than over-predict grades. Others might lean towards more optimistic estimations. These approaches may result in two equally capable students receiving different predicted grades.

What Should I Do If My Projected Grades Are “Wrong”?

Sometimes students become predicted grades, which, in their opinion, don’t reflect their potential. If this happens to you, it’s important to handle the situation calmly and professionally.

First of all, you need to realise that predicted grades are confidential, much like letters of recommendation. It’s not appropriate to directly ask teachers which grades they’ve provided or what affected their judgements. Instead, in your conversations with the teachers, you should focus on getting to know how you can boost your performance.

If you decide to discuss your academic progress with your teachers, approach the conversation constructively, not confrontationally. We recommend:

• Scheduling a proper meeting rather than trying to discuss it casually after class;
• Coming prepared with specific questions;
• Seeking advice for improvement instead of challenging their judgment;
• Sharing your academic goals and asking for guidance on achieving them;
• Listening to their perspective on your current performance and potential areas for growth.

But is it even possible to change predicted grades? Yes, in theory, but you will have very little time and must work really hard to achieve this. Basically, the only solution is to show your progress or prove that temporary external factors have impacted your previous performance. In any way, you need to attempt predicted grade revision BEFORE sending submissions to the universities of your choice.

If your estimated grades aren’t what you hoped for, you can try to channel your disappointment into a drive for improvement. Focus your energy on preparing for your final exams, where you’ll have the opportunity to demonstrate your true capabilities. With these real grades, you can apply to the desired universities again, although you may need to take a gap year.

What Happens If My Final Score Doesn’t Match the Predicted Score?

It is natural that you want your final scores to be as good or even better than the predicted ones. So, if you outdid yourself, it is great. But you probably want to know the consequences of underperformance. The good news, universities typically take a practical approach to such a situation.

Most institutions focus on whether you meet their minimum entry requirements rather than expecting an exact match with your predicted grades. For example, if your conditional offer requires an overall IB score of 32 with a 5 in Mathematics, you will still be able to secure your place even if some of your other subject grades turned out to be lower than the estimated ones.

By Sara Lloyd

Sara has been an education consultant for TutorsPlus for 15 years, and is an expert on international IB education.  She is also a parent of two lively children.